Biotech Buyout Portfolio 2026

A 12-month conviction-weighted $100,000 paper portfolio of nine AI-identified biotech acquisition targets, tracked live against the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI). The hypothesis: large language model screening can surface M&A candidates ahead of announcement.

Performance vs. XBI

Portfolio

XBI ETF

Returns indexed to 0% at inception (May 1, 2026). Weighted daily closes vs. XBI ETF.

Live Portfolio

Holdings & Current Prices

Portfolio Value

Unrealized P&L

Total Return

XBI Return

Cash

$419.54

Symbol / Company	Type	Shares	Current Price	Position Value	Daily	Total Return

Entry prices are May 1, 2026 closing prices, fixed for the duration of the experiment. Portfolio inception capital: $100,000. Undeployed cash: $419.54. Prices via Finnhub; delayed up to 15 minutes during market hours.

Weekly AI Trades

Trade Log.

Each week, the AI model may swap one holding for another from the broader biotech universe. Decisions are documented with rationale. The model can replace any single position per week; weights are redistributed to the replacement at current market prices.

Date	Action	Ticker	Shares	Price	Rationale

Methodology

How these stocks were selected.

The portfolio was constructed using a structured AI-assisted screening process. The methodology is documented in full below.

AI Screening & Selection Methodology +

Hypothesis

Large language models can synthesize publicly available information (SEC filings, earnings transcripts, patent databases, and M&A comparables) to identify biotech acquisition targets with statistically meaningful alpha versus a passive biotech index over a 12-month window.

Universe & Initial Filters

Starting universe: approximately 400 US-listed biotech and specialty pharma companies on NASDAQ and NYSE. Initial quantitative filters applied before AI scoring:

Market Capitalization: $500M – $15B
Targeting the "tuck-in" and mid-size acquisition sweet spot for large pharma acquirers.
Pipeline Stage: Phase 2 or later, or approved asset
Excludes preclinical-only companies where M&A timing is more speculative.
Cash Runway: ≥18 months at current burn rate
Ensures acquirer does not need to immediately recapitalize post-acquisition.

AI Scoring Dimensions

1
Pipeline Uniqueness
Novelty of mechanism of action relative to existing approved therapies.
2
Acquirer Strategic Fit
Alignment with known therapeutic focus areas of the top 20 pharma acquirers by M&A activity over 2018–2025.
3
Valuation Discount
Enterprise value relative to pipeline risk-adjusted NPV estimates.
4
M&A Catalyst Proximity
Timing of Phase 3 readouts, FDA PDUFA dates, or partnership events in the next 12 months.
5
Technical Moat
Strength of IP position, platform defensibility, and regulatory exclusivity duration.
6
Balance Sheet Health
Cash position, debt structure, and absence of near-term dilution risk.

Weekly Trade Rules

The AI model may execute one swap trade per week: selling one existing holding and replacing it with a new name from the broader biotech universe. The replacement inherits the prior position's weight. All trades are documented with explicit rationale. Weights are not rebalanced except through swap trades.

Benchmark

The portfolio is benchmarked against the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), benchmarked at its May 1, 2026 closing price of $130.92.

Investment Theses

Why each position was selected.

The AI-generated thesis for each holding. Inception theses are not updated during the experiment; swap trade rationale is logged separately in the trade log above.

Important disclaimer. This portfolio is a research experiment conducted by The Fery Group to evaluate the capabilities of AI tools applied to financial analysis. No real capital is deployed. This page does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, a solicitation, or an offer of any kind. The Fery Group LLC is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. All data is sourced from public markets and may be delayed. Past results of any AI methodology do not predict future performance. Consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.